FanBoardHQ

Southern Miss

University of Southern Mississippi · 2022 · Sun Belt

FanBoardHQ CFP
#82
Efficiency
-7.3
92nd FBS
Record
7-6
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-6th
of 14
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Southern Miss went 7-6 and was ranked 82nd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 58th-ranked defense carried them, with an 111th-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 53% of offensive plays with an 116th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 47% of plays with a 79th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
1-0
Q2
0-0
Q3
0-2
Q4
6-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 7.0 wins
Strength of Record
80th
-3.7 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
115th
full season
115th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
100th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.7 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs LibertyFBS Independents#71L 2729+0.10%-8.4Q4
2@ Miami-FLACC#86L 730-5.40%-25.1Q3
3vs Northwestern StateSouthlandW 6410+31.3100%1.8Q4
4@ TulaneAmerican Athletic#19W 2724-22.1100%19.3Q1
6@ TroySun Belt#28L 1027-12.20%-10.7Q3
7vs Arkansas StateSun Belt#118W 2019+9.0100%-14.8Q4
8@ Texas StateSun Belt#114W 2014+2.8100%-4.9Q4
9vs LouisianaSun Belt#88W 3924-0.6100%6.7Q4
10vs Georgia StateSun Belt#105L 1442+1.70%-35.7Q4
11@ Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#66L 2326-1.40%-9.5Q4
12vs South AlabamaSun Belt#53L 2027-4.00%-10.1Q4
13@ ULMSun Belt#112W 2010+5.4100%-2.5Q4
Postseason
vs RiceConference USA#109W 3824+7.2100%-1.2Q4

13 played · 7-6. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Southern Miss, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-31.3-8.2+14.9-8-25219-11-15-57-36-9-10-2Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 79th
SR 99thYPP 57thEPA 79th
RushingEff 116th
SR 100thYPP 84thEPA 127th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 52nd
SR 60thYPP 78thEPA 46th
Rush defenseEff 38th
SR 23rdYPP 63rdEPA 53rd
Dropback rate 47%Tempo -4.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 71st on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 43%1st · Defense allowed: 38%1st2nd · Offense: 33%2nd · Defense allowed: 35%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 37%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 61.0Q1 · Allowed: 57.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 102.0Q2 · Allowed: 85.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 62.0Q3 · Allowed: 79.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 78.0Q4 · Allowed: 84.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSouthern MissOffenseDefense
Southern Miss Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 111th
-8.3
Field position: +0.7Finishing drives: -9.0
Field position +0.7Finishing drives -9.0= -8.3
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 37th · Finishing 118th

Defensive EffRanked 58th
+0.9
Field position: +0.8Finishing drives: +0.1
Field position +0.8Finishing drives +0.1= +0.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 44th · Finishing 60th

1.79 points per drive on offense, 1.74 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 33.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(191)48% / 52%43%5.7
Q2(213)48% / 52%41%6.0
Q3(188)46% / 54%39%6.4
Q4(214)44% / 56%31%4.9
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(156)10.444%8.1
2nd(113)9.430%5.2
3rd(100)8.831%5.6
4th(7)4.986%16.0
All (376)37%6.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(205)9.941%5.0
2nd(145)7.535%4.5
3rd(71)6.341%5.5
4th(9)1.767%1.2
All (430)40%4.8

Southern Miss, all games.